tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-43488508220289195692024-02-08T03:16:13.987+02:00LE CAPITAL Le capital est Humain, Intellectuel, Social, Physique, Naturel, Financier, Economique, Culturel et j'en passe... ce sont là les données d'une même equation.Gaëtan Munkeni http://www.blogger.com/profile/18262034487902499731noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4348850822028919569.post-52683467525622766322021-02-13T14:21:00.000+02:002021-02-13T14:21:35.029+02:00Plaidoyer pour une forme de patriotisme économique en Afrique<p> </p><p align="center" class="Body" style="text-align: center;"><b></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSxlITgW-cHedFQn6SvHGhbJMX7-p1qr7MDFwenw7eR5QRiBNwGuoMA7KB-ZHupYcoJaJsrgH2120CTOy-5IVl_SQRedqB7IYQ4xQIirWuf2j1vlyBlPYjOzVXyqbb_XoyH8YXBe0Mk6s/s312/made+in+AFrica.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="161" data-original-width="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSxlITgW-cHedFQn6SvHGhbJMX7-p1qr7MDFwenw7eR5QRiBNwGuoMA7KB-ZHupYcoJaJsrgH2120CTOy-5IVl_SQRedqB7IYQ4xQIirWuf2j1vlyBlPYjOzVXyqbb_XoyH8YXBe0Mk6s/s0/made+in+AFrica.jpg" /></a></b></div><b><br /></b><p></p><p align="center" class="Body" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #006666; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 130%; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-bidi-font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-bidi-font-size: 18.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Arial Unicode MS";">Plaidoyer
pour une forme de patriotisme économique en Afrique<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Alors que nous pensions que le monde s’était tourné vers des idéologies
politiques calquées sur les deux versants de la pensée économique à savoir le
socialisme de gauche d’un côté et le libéralisme de droite de l’autre, force
est de constater que la complexité croissante des échanges entre différentes économies
fait qu’un <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>mode de pensée polarisé n’est
plus soutenable et limite grandement les outils disponibles à l’action publique
dans son ensemble. En effet, Un certain nombre de concepts hérités de Bretton
Woods qui ont fait entrer monde dans l’ère du libéralisme sont progressivement
abandonnés à la suite d’un certain nombre de chocs. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Alors que la crise des sub-primes suivie par la crise de la dette publique
a remis en question le niveau de risques ainsi que l’interconnexion du système
financier dans son ensemble, la crise sanitaire actuelle a fait resurgir les
dangers d’une interdépendance économique et logistique à l’échelle mondiale. Après
les poussées nationalistes des 5 dernières années elle semble donc être un
nouveau camouflet au libre-échange et au concept de mondialisation auquel le
monde a été accoutumé. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Longtemps considéré comme un idéal d’un autre temps, la notion de
patriotisme économique refait progressivement surface. </span><span style="color: #595959; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-ascii-font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-themetint: 166;">La
définition de ce concept n’est pas une affaire tranchée. Les parutions
académiques le définissent soit comme une invitation faite aux acteurs
économiques à favoriser les activités nationales ou encore comme un </span><span lang="FR-CD" style="background: white; color: #595959; mso-ascii-font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-themetint: 166;">sentiment
partagé par tout ou une partie des acteurs d’un pays, d’appartenir à un système
économique et/ou social national dont il convient d’assurer la pérennité.</span><span lang="FR-CD" style="color: #595959; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-themetint: 166;"> </span><span style="color: #595959; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-themetint: 166;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Les dernières manifestations de la montée de cette idéologie passent par
les âpres négociations du Brexit portant notamment sur l’exploitation de
l’espace maritime Britannique, la guerre commerciale entre les états Unis et la
Chine ou encore les récentes réglementations Allemandes visant à limiter les
participations non européennes dans les secteurs stratégiques.</span><span style="color: red; mso-ansi-language: FR;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">L’Afrique quant à elle, bien que tentant de trouver sa place dans ce
système multilatéral, n’a jamais vraiment réussie son projet d’intégration
économique. Il est donc intéressant de questionner ce modèle d’interconnexion
régionale plébiscité par plusieurs comme étant le seul à même de faire sortir
le continent de sa précarité. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="margin-left: 18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span></b><!--[endif]--><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Pourquoi le libre-échange ?
<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Ce concept prends son origine dans la théorie d’avantage comparatif de
David Ricardo qui prône simplement qu’en se spécialisant dans des secteurs
spécifiques pour lesquels une économie possède un avantage comparatif par
rapport à d’autres (Géographie, climatologie, disponibilité des matières
premières, ou encore main d’œuvre), elle se doit de concentrer ses outils
industriels à ce secteur pour sa consommation interne mais aussi pour la
consommation globale. Théoriquement, chaque spécialiste trouverait preneur pour
sa production vu qu’il la vendrait à un prix défiant toute concurrence car
étant le mieux à même de le produire de la manière la plus efficiente. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">L’argument essentiel en faveur du libre-échange est donc, pour le
consommateur des conditions d’achat (prix) et de consommation (qualité)
optimales et pour le producteur la valeur ajoutée de l’industrie dans le reste
de l’économie. En théorie, cette valeur ajoutée comprend essentiellement des
retombées créées par l’emploi, boosté par la croissance des commandes à
l’export,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>l’innovation technologique
pour accroitre l’avantage comparatif, mais surtout </span><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">la globalisation des chaines d’approvisionnement. En effet, pour accroitre
sa compétitivité, le producteur spécialisé va externaliser un certain nombre de
composantes de sa production en se tournant à son tour vers une série de
spécialistes ayant un avantage comparatif dans chacune des composantes
permettant ainsi une production encore </span><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">plus
efficiente du produit fini et une création de valeur qui s’étend à présent sur
d’autres économies. L’Afrique a particulièrement bénéficié de ce type de valeur
ajoutée.</span></p><p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Largement relayés par la presse spécialisée ces deux dernières années, les
liens commerciaux entre l’Ethiopie et la Chine en sont un bon exemple. En
effet, l’Ethiopie a inscrit la stratégie de délocalisation industrielle
Chinoise au centre de sa politique de diversification économique, envisageant
de créer près de 2 millions d’emploi à l’horizon 2025. Le PIB Ethiopien s’est vu multiplié par deux
pendant que son taux de pauvreté lui, était divisé par deux sur la période
allant de 2010 à 2017. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Bien que fondamentalement industriel, le libre-échange touche également la
sphère digitale. Le phénomène dit de mondialisation numérique consiste en un
processus par lequel des services digitaux annexes viennent se greffer aux
processus industriels et aux échanges qui en découle tel que décrit ci-haut. Cela
permet donc à un certain nombre de PME, aussi bien sur un marché local que sur
des marchés affiliés, de mettre sur pied des services tels que des plateformes
logistiques en ligne, des services de réservation ou encore des sites de ventes
avec tout un impact positif sur l’emploi, l’innovation et le PIB des économies
concernées. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="margin-left: 18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span></b><!--[endif]--><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Critiques <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Traditionnellement, l’une des critiques les plus acerbes du libre-échange
se trouve dans la destruction des opportunités d’emploi et/ou de
l’affaiblissement du tissu entrepreneurial local constitué de fabricants de
produits non spécialisés ou dont la spécialisation requiert un faible niveau de
qualification. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>C’est le cas actuel de la
majorité du continent Africain dont la présence sur la scène du commerce
international se limite à l’export de matières premières avec un gain limité en
valeur ajoutée.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">En dépit des règles qui régissent les échanges internationaux, une autre
critique récurrente concerne un certain nombre de barrières à l’import imposées
par les économies développées empêchant la création d’échanges productifs
d’avec les économies émergentes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Celles-ci passent par des impositions de droits d’entrées ou par des
subventions gouvernementales dans le secteur agricole notamment.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Enfin, au vu de sa faible intégration dans le système financier international,
l’Afrique souffre tout particulièrement d’un déficit de capitaux qui limite
d’avantage la compétitivité à l’export du déjà très frêle tissu économique
local.</span></p>
<p class="Body" style="margin-left: 18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span></b><!--[endif]--><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Et en même temps :<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Il existe cependant un point d’équilibre entre les politiques de
libre-échange et celles qui prônent une forme de patriotisme économique. Celui-ci
passe par la régulation, la réglementation et la surveillance.<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"> </b><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Le respect des règles du commerce international en fonction des aspects
spécifiques de la compétitivité d’une économie à une autre en sont le
fondement. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Cependant, ces règles sont standardisées et de nature à bénéficier aux
économies déjà engagées dans les activités d’échanges. Elles sont donc peu
adéquates à la création de nouvelles dynamiques d’import-export. La très
probable nomination de Mme Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, ancienne ministre des Finances
du Nigeria, à la tête de cette institution pourrait contribuer à l’établissement
d’un cadre plus propice aux échanges liés à l’Afrique. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">L’application de ses règles devra ensuite se concentrer sur
l’administration de pans clés des économies Africaines. Ces secteurs dits
« stratégiques » pourraient être définis en fonction d’indicateurs
tels que leur rapport au PIB, l’impact sur l’emploi, l’importance de la chaine
de valeur ajoutée ou selon leur rapport à la souveraineté économique du pays. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Enfin, ces règles devraient être étroitement surveillées mais surtout être
assez flexibles pour permettre de les amender en fonction de l’évolution de
l’environnement global, de la désignation de nouveaux secteurs stratégiques ou
encore de changements de politique internationale des principaux partenaires
d’échanges. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Dans cette optique, l’intégration économique Africaine, dont la Zone de
libre-échange continental Africaine (ZLECAF) est la dernière-née, pourrait
enfin amener le continent vers une indépendance économique désespérément
recherchée. <o:p></o:p></span></p>Gaëtan Munkeni http://www.blogger.com/profile/18262034487902499731noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4348850822028919569.post-470915939710765362020-12-15T19:14:00.001+02:002020-12-15T19:14:17.785+02:00Un an après, quatre leçons du Covid-19 à l’écosystème Financier Congolais<p><span style="color: #66625e; text-align: justify;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7Dk8Mbro49A2W6Q72GQXi_g5JwmMvZ0CywlBiMgRWdyjbSp0rnFFVGcN4q8-RBdYBrmuAHlBwvKcSMH1OmJpZFLcBjK_USfeTM904TfC_b5laErLpKN_qj8-Lytpu_vXjOLakXfIWipI/s332/Covid+entreprnership.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="152" data-original-width="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7Dk8Mbro49A2W6Q72GQXi_g5JwmMvZ0CywlBiMgRWdyjbSp0rnFFVGcN4q8-RBdYBrmuAHlBwvKcSMH1OmJpZFLcBjK_USfeTM904TfC_b5laErLpKN_qj8-Lytpu_vXjOLakXfIWipI/s320/Covid+entreprnership.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />La crise liée à la pandémie du coronavirus a plongé le
monde dans une ère d’incertitude sans précédent. Pour la première fois depuis
plusieurs décennies, l’économie mondiale a vécu ce à quoi pourrait ressembler
un arrêt complet de la machine économique. Bien qu’ayant été relativement
épargné par la crise sanitaire, il est pertinent de se poser la question de la
réelle résilience de notre écosystème financier dans le cas d’une plus grande
exposition à une telle crise.<p></p>
<p class="BodyA" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e;">Les 4 leçons du Covid-19 à l’écosystème Financier
Congolais ne sont qu’un échantillon trillé sur le volet dans le but de pousser
à la réflexion sur un certain nombre d’effets multiplicateurs capables de créer
de la valeur et d’aboutir à un environnement beaucoup plus robuste.</span></p>
<p class="BodyA" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="color: #66625e;">Des finances publiques </span></b><b><span style="color: #66625e;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="BodyA" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e;">L’un des premiers signes de la résilience des Etats a été
leur capacité d’injecter les liquidités nécessaires aux projets de relances de
leurs économies. Cela a été réalisé par des réductions d’impôts, de
l’investissement public ou encore par des paiements directs des états aux
entreprises et aux particulier</span><span style="color: #66625e;">s</span><span style="color: #66625e;">. Deux choses sont fondamentales pour accomplir cette
mission. Une monnaie forte administrée par une banque centrale indépendante et
une politique fiscale permettant à l’état de se doter des moyens de financement
dont il peut avoir besoin en période de crise. </span><span style="color: #66625e;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="BodyA" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="color: #66625e;">De l’investissement</span></b><b><span style="color: #66625e;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="BodyA" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">I</span><span style="color: #66625e;">l </span><span style="color: #66625e;">ensuite primordial de parvenir à
réaliser une politique d’investissements stratégiques permettant de mieux résister
aux chocs. </span><b><span style="color: #66625e;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="BodyA" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><i><span style="color: #66625e;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>L’économie numérique:</span></i></b><b><i><span style="color: #66625e;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="BodyA" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e;">Tous les pays les plus affectés par la pandémie s’en sont
retournés vers le secteur numérique qui a permis de garder un certain nombres
de services et d’entreprises à flot.</span><span style="color: #525252;"> La
politique numérique devrait permettre un accès plus important et plus stable à
internet, promouvoir la création d’un écosystème entrepreneurial (type accélérateur
ou incubateurs de start-up) capable de créer de véritables solutions de
paiement, de logistique commerciale, ou d’investissement dans les systèmes de
sécurité numérique entre autre. Il faudrait enfin promouvoir un véritable cadre
juridique adapté aux opérations numériques et travailler sur un système
éducatif tourné vers les métiers du numérique tels le codage, le développement
d’application ou encore la programmation. </span><span style="color: #525252;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="BodyA" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #525252;">La contribution des services numériques doit devenir une
part de plus en plus importante du PIB et ce à travers un objectif clairement
définit et poursuivit par l’état. L’impact mondial du numérique sur le PIB se
situe autour de 4,5% incluant, entre autre, 6% de moyenne pour les pays
développés et environ 1% pour les marchés Africains. Certains pays tels que le
Kenya (3%), les Etats unis (7%) ou encore l’Irlande (12%) sont clairement au-dessus
des moyennes de leurs marchés respectifs. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Le Sénégal, par exemple, s’est fixé l’objectif
ambitieux d’atteindre 10% de contribution à l’horizon 2025. </span><span style="color: #525252;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="BodyA" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><i><span style="color: #525252;">Environnement médical:</span></i></b><b><i><span style="color: #525252;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="BodyA" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e;">Malgré les investissements déjà insuffisants et haut
combien nécessaires dans le système de santé primaire, la pandémie nous a
montré qu’il est également urgent d’apporter un support au systèm</span><span style="color: #525252;">e paramédical, notamment celui de la</span><span style="color: #cc4437;"> </span><span style="color: #66625e;">pharmacie, du
laboratoire et<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>plus globalement de la recherche.
</span><span style="color: #66625e;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="BodyA" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e;">L’équipe du Docteur Muyembe et son expérience dans la
gestion des crises épidémiologiques a démontré qu’il existe bien les moyens
humains pour faire face à ce type de pandémies pourvu que l’on investisse dans
des unités sectorielles en les dotant de moyens permettant le développement de
solutions propres à l’Afrique et au Congo. </span><span style="color: #66625e;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="BodyA" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e;">A travers cet éminent homme de science, la RDC a été un
des précurseur</span><span style="color: #66625e;">s</span><span style="color: #66625e;"> de la lutte contre le virus Ebola dont nous avons
exporté le système de gestion épidémiologie au reste de l’Afrique malgré des
investissements clairement insuffisants dans ce domaine.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Aujourd’hui, alors qu’aucun scientifique
n’est capable de déterminer avec précision pourquoi et comment l’Afrique a été
si peu affectée par la crise sanitaire actuelle, la réponse aurait pu et aurait
dû provenir des Africains eux-mêmes.<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><b><span style="color: #66625e;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="BodyA" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="color: #66625e;">De la diversification de la création de richesse</span></b><b><span style="color: #66625e;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="BodyA" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e;">Les économies les plus résilientes en période de Covid
ont la capacité de continuer de créer de la richesse provenant d’une multitude
de secteurs. Avec une économie essentiellement tournée vers les mines (90%) des
exports, la RDC aurait cruellement souffert dans le cas où l’activité minière
aurait été affectée par la pandémie.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>L’économie devrait donc diversifier ses sources de revenus pour, d’une
part, donner plus de moyens d’intervention à l’état en temps de crise et, d’autre
part, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>créer de plus en plus d’emplois
formels produisant l’épargne suffisante à une relance de la consommation après
un arrêt du cycle de croissance. La formalisation de l’agriculture, la création
d’industries de transformation (hors mines) et la diversification du secteur
des services doit être une priorité pour tous. Entre 1990 et 2014, en dehors du
Rwanda, du Sénégal et du Soudan, les pays Africains ont très peu diversifié
leurs exports, très souvent se concentrant sur des rentes minérales ou
énergétiques.</span></p>
<p class="BodyA" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="color: #66625e;">De la politique Commerciale</span></b><b><span style="color: red;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="BodyA" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #525252;">Les exports de la RDC sont concentrés en grande majorité
sur la Chine. </span><span style="color: #525252;">Une c</span><span style="color: #5c5c5c;">oncentration qui aurait bien pu nous être fatale si
celle-ci n’avait pas été la première économie à ressortir de la crise.
Cependant, un volume beaucoup plus important d’échanges commerciaux
inter-régionaux à forte valeur ajoutée permettrait de rendre les économies Africaines
beaucoup plus résilientes sur le papier. </span><span style="color: #5c5c5c;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="BodyA" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #5c5c5c;">Nonobstant les réserves (en partie justifiées) liées à
son application, l’accord de libre-échange continental Africain de mars 2018,
est destiné à accroitre ces échanges tout en en augmentant la diversification
et le niveau de sophistication. Il est cependant essentiel que les différentes
économies concernées se dotent de véritables stratégies industrielles
permettant d’assurer la compétitivité de leurs productions et de leurs exports.
</span><span style="color: #5c5c5c;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="BodyA" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #5c5c5c;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>Gaëtan Munkeni http://www.blogger.com/profile/18262034487902499731noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4348850822028919569.post-57459386235978412872020-09-02T11:25:00.003+02:002020-09-02T12:31:36.286+02:00L’embellie du cuivre est-elle pérenne?<p><span style="color: #66625e; text-align: justify;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #66625e; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOgeMjZcIDepeou5yJ8WH-XOf1aPLqPLQIYAs0od-kUAljTOmXcrH6qjbH4ALh-spe6exjM2gFjAX3t_amxnQwoha83JdrLD5nSK5j14QicWEDochXXwpG2lZ1BhNYyJcOxaoU-IW3I1E/s626/coronavirus-covid-19-financial-crisis-economy-downfall-background_1017-24622.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="417" data-original-width="626" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOgeMjZcIDepeou5yJ8WH-XOf1aPLqPLQIYAs0od-kUAljTOmXcrH6qjbH4ALh-spe6exjM2gFjAX3t_amxnQwoha83JdrLD5nSK5j14QicWEDochXXwpG2lZ1BhNYyJcOxaoU-IW3I1E/s0/coronavirus-covid-19-financial-crisis-economy-downfall-background_1017-24622.jpg" /></a></span></div><span style="color: #66625e; text-align: justify;"><br />La crise liée à la pandémie du coronavirus a plongé le monde dans une ère
d’incertitude sans égal. Pour la première fois depuis plusieurs décennies, le
monde a vécu ce à quoi pourrait ressembler un arrêt complet de la machine
économique. Cependant, pendant ces temps moroses, les fondamentaux qui règlent
le secteur porteur de la RDC, à savoir le secteur minier et la production Cuivre-Cobalt,
ne semblent pas avoir été affectés outre mesure.</span><p></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Cette ambigüité interpelle sur la soutenabilité de la bonne performance de
ce secteur et de ses cours, ainsi que de l’impact sur l’économie Congolaise.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Production soutenue<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Avec une production de 765 000 tonnes de cuivre à Juin 2020 soit une
croissance de </span><span style="color: #67635f; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #67635F; mso-style-textfill-fill-colortransforms: lumm=75000; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background2; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><span color="">14%</span></span><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"> par rapport à Juin 2019, la filière Cuivre-Cobalt se porte relativement bien
en RDC. Ce résultat a été notamment réalisé du fait de la forte réduction de
mouvements</span><span style="color: #ff5545; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: accent4;"> </span><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">à l’intérieur des sites de production dans le cadre
des mesures sanitaires pour lutter contre la Covid 19. Malgré les tensions
sociales engendrées par ces mesures de confinement au plus fort de la courbe de
contamination, la productivité n’a été que faiblement entamée.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Envolée des co</span></b></span></b></span><b style="color: #66625e; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">urs</span></b></span></b></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Depuis le début de l’année 2020, les cours du cuivre vacillent entre 6200
USD et 6500 USD la tonne. </span><span style="color: #67635f; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #67635F; mso-style-textfill-fill-colortransforms: lumm=75000; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background2; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><span color="">Ce niveau des prix permet aux entreprises
minières de générer des marges relativement confortables lorsque l’on sait que
le cout moyen de production de la filière se situe entre<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>USD 3000 et USD 4000 dollars la tonne. </span></span><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Cependant une analyse approfondie nous dirige vers deux facteurs qui permettraient
de percer la dichotomie entre la </span><span style="color: #67635f; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #67635F; mso-style-textfill-fill-colortransforms: lumm=75000; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background2; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><span color="">situation préoccupante que connait actuellement
l’économie mondiale et cette embellie qui semble <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>s’installer dans la durée. Ces facteurs de soutenabilité
sont </span></span><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">les fondamentaux de l’économie et les attentes
des marchés financiers. Les fondamentaux sont essentiellement fonction de la loi
de l’offre et de la demande pendant que les attentes des marchés sont notamment
fonction du niveau de liquidité globale et de la réaction des acteurs
financiers à divers évènements du paysage économique. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Facteurs de soutenabilité <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Il ressort de l’analyse des fondamentaux du cuivre que l’amélioration de
son prix est liée à des facteurs autres que sa demande. En effet, le faible
niveau de production des principaux producteurs que sont le Chili </span><span style="color: #67635f; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #67635F; mso-style-textfill-fill-colortransforms: lumm=75000; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background2; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><span color="">et le Pérou en période de confinement, </span></span><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">a créé un déficit de l’offre qui maintient le niveau des cours. C’est
précisément là où se trouve la fragilité actuelle du métal rouge. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>La demande permet de soutenir un niveau de
prix de façon beaucoup plus durable car elle relève de fondamentaux économiques
beaucoup plus solides dans le temps. Comparativement, l’offre dépend d’éléments
à court terme principalement liés aux facteurs et aux outils de production. Il
est donc plausible d’anticiper un retournement de situation si les cours ne
changent pas de facteurs </span><span style="color: #67635f; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #67635F; mso-style-textfill-fill-colortransforms: lumm=75000; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background2; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><span color="">de soutenabilité
avant </span></span><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">la relance des activités dans le reste
du monde. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">L’observation de l’évolution
des marchés financiers révèle une seconde réalité qui affecte les cours. Depuis
le début de la crise sanitaire, les principales économies mondiales se sont
lancées dans une série d’injection de liquidité afin de booster la
consommation. Sous la forme de rachat d’actif publics par les banques
centrales, de subventions fiscales ou encore de financements directs aux
consommateurs, il est estimé qu’un montant équivalent à</span><span style="color: red; mso-ansi-language: FR;"> </span><span style="color: #67635f; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #67635F; mso-style-textfill-fill-colortransforms: lumm=75000; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background2; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">6000 milliards de Dollars </span><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">devrait être injecté dans l’économie mondiale. En plus de la liquidité
injectée, cette politique d’assouplissement quantitatif a créé une onde d’optimisme
qui a envoyé à la hausse les principaux marchés financiers du globe, impactant ainsi
les cours du cuivre. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">La fragilité de cette position devient apparente dans l’optique d’un retour
aux fondamentaux d’une demande en berne dans l’après Covid. Les cours
repartiraient subitement à la baisse lorsque les acteurs économiques se seront
rendu compte qu’ils ne peuvent pas continuer très longtemps à tenir des positions
dont personne ne veut.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><br /></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Seconde vague de liquidité</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red; mso-ansi-language: FR;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Les fonds injectés dans l’économie mondiale jusqu’à présent sont
essentiellement destinés à maintenir à flot les secteurs impactés pendant la
période de faible demande de biens et services que nous vivons actuellement. Une
seconde vague de liquidité est à anticiper au moment où le monde aura quitté le
chevet des patients du Covid-19 et qu’il s’agira de faire l’inventaire des
dégâts de la bataille; Il faudra de nouveau passer au porte-monnaie pour, cette
fois-là, relancer la machine. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Le candidat Démocrate à la présidence américaine, Joe Biden, a d’ores et
déjà inclus cette deuxième vague à l’ordre du jour de ses décisions économiques
s’il est porté à la maison blanche en novembre prochain. Cette masse de liquidité
dont une bonne partie sera empruntée pourrait également accélérer une situation
d’endettement global excessif sans pour autant réussir à créer les pressions
inflationnistes tant attendues depuis la crise de 2008. Ce scénario, couplé à
des taux d’intérêts déjà au rabais, alimente notamment les prédictions d’une
très </span><span style="color: #67635f; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #67635F; mso-style-textfill-fill-colortransforms: lumm=75000; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background2; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><span color="">prochaine grande
récession à l’échelle mondiale. </span></span><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">La seule bonne nouvelle pour le cuivre Congolais dans ce sombre tableau est
le niveau relativement satisfaisant de la reprise Chinoise. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>En effet, la Chine a réussi à amortir l’impact
du pétrin Covid avec une injection modérée de liquidité comparativement aux
crises précédentes (le plan de relance Chinois, à 700 milliards de Dollars, représente
moins de la moitié de celui des états unis). Cela en dit long sur la capacité
d’absorption des chocs que présente l’économie Chinoise qui sera très
certainement l’élément catalyseur de la sortie de crise à l’instar de 2008.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><br /></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Défis</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red; mso-ansi-language: FR;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #66625e; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;">Dans l’hypothèse d’une récession, les prix des métaux en général et ceux du
cuivre en particulier ne seraient pas épargnés. L’économie Congolaise, dans
laquelle le secteur minier représente près de 35% des revenus de l’état sans
compter sa chaine de valeur directe, serait naturellement impactée.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #67635f; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #67635F; mso-style-textfill-fill-colortransforms: lumm=75000; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background2; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><span color="">Il serait donc important de poser le débat d’un
certain nombre de mesures qui permettraient de créer une réelle capacité d’absorption
des chocs économiques en RDC.</span></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="color: #67635f; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #67635F; mso-style-textfill-fill-colortransforms: lumm=75000; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background2; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><span color="">Macro-économie :</span></span></u></i><u><span style="color: #67635f; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #67635F; mso-style-textfill-fill-colortransforms: lumm=75000; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background2; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #67635f; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #67635F; mso-style-textfill-fill-colortransforms: lumm=75000; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background2; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><span color="">Au niveau macro-économique l’essentiel des
actions viserait à se réapproprier les outils de la relance.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #67635f; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #67635F; mso-style-textfill-fill-colortransforms: lumm=75000; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background2; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><span color="">La dé-dollarisation de l’économie en est un
point majeur. Ce processus permettrait, entre autre, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>de
faire repartir la machine économique par des moyens de relance endogènes dont
il serait possible de maitriser les cycles. La dollarisation est une situation
d’autant plus handicapante qu’en temps de crise, les pays présentant des
passifs en monnaies étrangères rencontrent généralement des difficultés de
remboursement plus importantes.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #67635f; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #67635F; mso-style-textfill-fill-colortransforms: lumm=75000; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background2; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><span color="">La refonte du système fiscal est également
primordiale. En tant de crise, un système fiscal déficient devient doublement
handicapant car au-delà du fait qu’il produit encore moins de revenus à l’état,
son inefficience empêche de booster la consommation vu qu’il a perdu son lien
avec l’activité économique. Cette refonte passe non seulement par
l’établissement d’un niveau de taxation optimal mais par le renforcement des
capacités des entités de contrôles. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #67635f; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #67635F; mso-style-textfill-fill-colortransforms: lumm=75000; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background2; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><span color="">La création de véhicules de croissance demeure
une initiative de premier ordre. Un certain nombre de secteurs permettent d’avoir
un impact rapide sur le niveau de la consommation d’une économie en y injectant
directement de la liquidité. Lorsque ceux-ci sont inexistants ou défaillants,
comme c’est le cas en RDC, toute initiative de relance prend le temps de la
création ou de la refonte de ces secteurs. L’énergie, la métallurgie de
produits à valeur ajoutée, le transport, la construction ou les différentes
disciplines de l’ingéniorat permettent notamment de relayer de la croissance
dans le reste de l’économie. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="color: #67635f; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #67635F; mso-style-textfill-fill-colortransforms: lumm=75000; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background2; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><span color="">Micro-économie :</span></span></u></i><u><span style="color: #67635f; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #67635F; mso-style-textfill-fill-colortransforms: lumm=75000; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background2; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #67635f; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #67635F; mso-style-textfill-fill-colortransforms: lumm=75000; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background2; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><span color="">Une réelle politique de l’emploi est un
must. Le taux de chômage est très souvent aux abonnés absents des indicateurs
économiques fréquemment débattus sur la RDC. La faute à un manque de données ou
à un manque de focus sur la question. Des objectifs de création d’emplois
devraient être au centre de toutes les politiques sectorielles du pays en
réfléchissant sur l’innovation, la formation et l’éducation en général. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #67635f; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #67635F; mso-style-textfill-fill-colortransforms: lumm=75000; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background2; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><span color="">Une réelle politique de l’entreprenariat
aiderait le point précédent. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>L’entreprenariat
fait vivre une très grande part de la population Congolaise bien qu’étant pour
la plus grande part informel. L’économie aurait énormément à gagner dans la
canalisation de ces énergies créatives et très souvent innovantes. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #67635f; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #67635F; mso-style-textfill-fill-colortransforms: lumm=75000; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background2; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><span color="">Une réelle amélioration du « doing
business » demeure une préoccupation. Malgré la vulgarisation des
campagnes liées au climat des affaires, les avancées restent mitigées. Cette initiative
est cependant un des piliers du développement de beaucoup d’économies
africaines (le Rwanda en est certainement l’exemple le plus plausible) et même
mondiales. La Chine a fait de l’amélioration de sa lourdeur administrative un
des points focaux du « Xinomics » ; la nouvelle politique
économique du Président Xi. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>C’est dire
combien ce qui apparait désormais comme un slogan parmi tant d’autre dans le
paysage économique Congolais, est en fait un des points focaux du développement
d’un certain nombre d’économies performantes. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #67635f; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #67635F; mso-style-textfill-fill-colortransforms: lumm=75000; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background2; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 191;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>Gaëtan Munkeni http://www.blogger.com/profile/18262034487902499731noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4348850822028919569.post-7275187878153316382020-08-04T11:20:00.005+02:002020-08-04T19:06:40.812+02:00Plaidoyer pour un financement du déficit par la dette publique<p align="center" class="Body" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgt8Pv50-YoUQflqFFKlk5eo5dsuBCN9gjMWC-lHekZg7exe4rPlNndtzRIAXGiJWtcmeGX9D0LSpVbzK27yS_EVZ9GKYHv4qi69UmgT9O3kd5XVO7VdhvEoy3N7VRvQTfgQ5CECd4NuxY/s592/Franc+Congolais.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="296" data-original-width="592" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgt8Pv50-YoUQflqFFKlk5eo5dsuBCN9gjMWC-lHekZg7exe4rPlNndtzRIAXGiJWtcmeGX9D0LSpVbzK27yS_EVZ9GKYHv4qi69UmgT9O3kd5XVO7VdhvEoy3N7VRvQTfgQ5CECd4NuxY/s0/Franc+Congolais.jpg" /></a></div><font face="inherit"><br /></font><p></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><font face="inherit">La RDC expérimente actuellement une
confluence de facteurs économiques qui nécessitent une vision et des méthodes
différentes de celles actuellement en place afin de jeter les jalons d’un réel
développement dans la durée. <o:p></o:p></font></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><font face="inherit">Il y a un besoin de recentrer les
actions menées sur des solutions et des capacités à long terme malgré la
nécessité de l’action immédiate et à court terme actuellement menée. Trois
facteurs peuvent aider à comprendre l’importance et la nécessité de cette
politique à long terme : La productivité et le niveau de revenus général <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(ou niveau de création de richesse).</font></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><font face="inherit">Deux
concepts clés</font></span></b></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><font face="inherit">Facteur
court-terme : La création de richesse</font></span></i></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><font face="inherit">Ce concept englobe la rémunération des
activités transactionnelles qui s’opèrent dans une économie. Deux facteurs clés
influent sur cette donne : la consommation et le crédit. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Comme le nom l’indique, la consommation
englobe les dépenses opérées par les agents économiques (individus et
entreprises) pour l’utilisation des biens mis à leur disposition. <o:p></o:p></font></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><font face="inherit">Le crédit quant à lui contribue à
l’expansion de la consommation (et donc des revenus) en créant un complément ou
un surplus de liquidité disponibles pour les agents économiques. <o:p></o:p></font></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><font face="inherit">Vu que les dépenses des uns sont les
revenus des autres, une croissance globale de la consommation entraine une
augmentation des revenus et donc crée naturellement de la richesse.</font></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><font face="inherit">Facteur
long-terme : Productivité de l’économie</font></span></i></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><font face="inherit">Elle peut être comprise comme le
niveau d’augmentation de la valeur ajoutée tirée des richesses créées par le
processus ci-haut décrit. La productivité est donc créée par l’effet
d’entrainement d’une chaine de valeur des divers segments de l’économie qui
étendent le niveau de développement à un nombre croissant<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>de secteurs de la société. Une réelle diversification
des flux transactionnels s’opère alors. <o:p></o:p></font></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><font face="inherit">En RDC, ce processus de création de
valeur ne s’opère quasiment pas. Cela explique le très faible niveau de
développement socio-économique malgré des indicateurs de croissance du produit
intérieur brut. <o:p></o:p></font></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><font face="inherit">Les causent sont connus : Une
économie de rente, principalement basée sur le trading de nos matières
premières (elles-mêmes extrêmement sous-exploitées par rapport aux potentiels
installés) pour une très faible valeur ajoutée locale, un manque criant d’infrastructure
de base pouvant booster la diversification économique, un ralentissement
croissant du renouvellement des cerveaux, des indicateurs sociaux et sanitaires
en constante baisse qui freinent l’adoption d’une culture du travail.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></font></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><font face="inherit">On comprend des deux concepts ci-haut qu’une croissance
mesurée et constante des facteurs courts termes entrainent inexorablement une
courbe de productivité sur le long terme.</font></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><font face="inherit"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Outils
inefficients</b><span> </span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><font face="inherit">Les gouvernements
et les Banques centrales utilisent généralement un mélange d’investissements
publics, d’outils de politique monétaires (à travers les taux d’intérêts) et de
politique fiscale incitative permettant d’influer sur le niveau de la
consommation et sur le crédit.</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><font face="inherit">La RDC est
dans une situation de recouvrement fiscal défaillant qui bloque tout outils d’incitation
fiscale d’une part et de dollarisation de l’économie qui bloque les outils d’incitation
monétaire d’autre part étant donné que la banque centrale est dans l’incapacité
de fournir aux institutions financières locales des dollars américains en
volume suffisant.</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><font face="inherit">L’investissement
public reste donc le seul outil susceptible de produire des résultats palpables.
La difficulté rencontrée ici vient du faible niveau actuel des finances
publiques; les revenus de l’état eux -même découlant du niveau de la
consommation via le système fiscal défaillant.</font></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><font face="inherit">Une série d’investissements
publics productifs
et rémunérateurs permettraient de booster le niveau de la consommation et de
fournir aux finances publiques les moyens d’entreprendre des réformes visant à
régler les deux problèmes qui la mettent en situation d’incapacité à savoir la
dollarisation et le faible niveau de discipline fiscale.</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><font face="inherit">Ces
investissements ne peuvent donc être financés que par la dette.</font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><font face="inherit">Attractivités</font></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><font face="inherit">La RDC a
bénéficié en 2010 de l’annulation d’une majeure partie de sa dette publique
dans le cadre de l’initiative PPTE qui lui a permis de réduire son ratio
d’endettement à environ 20% classant la RDC dans le top 10 des pays les moins
endettés du monde en 2017. </font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><font face="inherit">C</font><font face="inherit">ela laiss</font><font face="inherit">e
donc u</font><font face="inherit">ne marge cons</font><span style="font-family: inherit;">idérable d’emprunt par rapport au niveau de revenu que
l’économie est déjà capable de générer.</span></p><p></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><font face="inherit">L’attractivité
théorique sur papier de la RDC n’est plus à démontrer. Le pays est capable de
démontrer le retour sur investissement d’une émission obligataire basée sur la
projection future de ces revenus grâce à des investissements ciblés dans des
secteurs clés tels que l’énergie, le transport ou la restructuration
d’entreprises génératrices de revenus.<o:p></o:p></font></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><font face="inherit">Ces
secteurs se doivent d’assurer des flux additionnels aux flux existants qui sont
déjà utilisés par les gouvernements, institutions et autres entreprises
publiques pour lever des fonds sur le marché bancaire local afin de faire face
à des besoins de fonctionnements et d’investissements à court et moyen terme.</font></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><font face="inherit">Défis</font></span></b></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><font face="inherit">Deux
problèmes se posent cependant de façon persistante, celui du niveau de collecte
fiscale et de la dépendance des recettes budgétaires au secteur minier.</font></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><font face="inherit">La
RDC a un très faible niveau de collecte de ses recettes fiscales. En outre, ces
recettes budgétaires sont très sensibles à la production minière et à sa
profitabilité. Au cours de la décennie 90, ce secteur concentrait<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>déjà 20 à 40 % des revenus budgétaires du
pays. Ce pourcentage n’a pas énormément évolué puisqu’il se situe à environ 35%
de nos jours, malgré des dépenses budgétaires accrues en raison de plusieurs
facteurs dont l'augmentation de la population et le très faible taux de maintenance
des infrastructures de base.</font></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><font face="inherit">Ce
problème structurel rend donc difficile une levée de fonds sous la forme
d’emprunt obligataire souverain.<o:p></o:p></font></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><font face="inherit">Les
levées de fonds devront être arrangées sous la forme de financements structurés
autour d’entités publiques productrices de flux de trésoreries propres ou sous
la forme d’emprunt obligataire émis par des Fonds commun de créances (SPV) mises
en place pour la réalisation de projets rémunérateurs. Ces structurations de
crédits seront arrangées principalement sur les marchés obligataires ou par les
syndicats de banques privées.</font></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><font face="inherit"><span style="color: windowtext;">La
problématique des conditions de financement ne peut cependant être éludée.
Depuis les années 70 et les premiers emprunts d’envergure de l’économie
congolaise, les conditions d’octroi de prêts auxquels le pays a dû faire face
ont toujours été relativement défavorables en comparaison aux économies à
revenus similaires. Un emprunt auprès du secteur privé implique<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>donc un poids relativement élevé du service
de la dette qu’il sera important de mesurer par rapport au niveau de productivité
de l’emprunt dans l’économie.</span><span style="color: windowtext;"> </span></font></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><font face="inherit">L’aspect
du risque de change est également à considérer. Le service de la dette
constitue un poids non négligeable sur les réserves de change à l’instar des emprunts
majeurs des années 70 effectués en euromonnaie et dont les fluctuations de taux
de change avaient contribués aux difficultés de remboursements de l’époque.</font></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><font face="inherit">Les
solutions de levée de fonds auprès des préteurs institutionnels restent
attractives du point de vue des conditions d’octroi. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ces financements seraient d’autant plus
intéressants qu’ils cibleraient des secteurs clés chers à chaque préteur
institutionnel selon sa mission. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Il se
poserait cependant le problème de la disponibilité de fonds au vu la taille des
investissements à réaliser en RDC. Aussi, ce cantonnement aux prêteurs
institutionnels<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>empêcherait l’amélioration
du profil de risque de la RDC souillé par des années d’arriérés de service de
dettes vis-à-vis des financiers privés. Un historique plus attrayant ouvrirait
la porte à une diversification des sources de financement dont souffrent un
certains nombres de pays d’Afrique sub-saharienne.</font></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><font face="inherit"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: windowtext;">Quelques références</span></b><span style="color: windowtext;"> </span></font></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: windowtext;"><font face="inherit">L’exemple le plus frappant à l’heure
actuelle est celui du Bénin, qui pour son premier emprunt obligataire a levé EUR
500 million sur les marchés Européens, à un taux attractif de de 5,75% et souscrit
à 250%. Cette prouesse a été réalisée grâce à un certain nombre de réformes
structurelles entreprises sur les 3 années précédant leur levée de fonds et dont
les résultats ont constitué la base de l’argumentaire Béninois auprès des
investisseurs.</font></span></p>
<p class="Body" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><font face="inherit">La structuration de la dette Angolaise est également
intéressante. Celle-ci a été arrangée à travers un SPV constitué de l’état
Angolais et d’une Banque privée,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>émettrice d’un emprunt obligataire souscrit sur le marché de la dette et
remboursé par les paiements émanant du trésor Angolais. Cette structure peut être
une option pour une première émission ou les marchés pourraient se montrer
sceptiques sur la capacité de remboursement de la RDC. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>La prime au taux d’intérêt serait bien entendu
plus importante que pour une émission directe, mais permettra de créer un
certain niveau d’attractivité à l’emprunt. <o:p></o:p></font></p><br />Gaëtan Munkeni http://www.blogger.com/profile/18262034487902499731noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4348850822028919569.post-84607533573672721422020-06-14T01:50:00.002+02:002020-08-04T19:10:25.666+02:00Is the Digital Yuan ready to take on the Dollar as a reserve currency?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeLSJFPHIj0P-Gl1EwByG80NnrlJqdh1acoH4mg-tRPeFcqcnFu8BQvjxn8mu62rG3aFT140d8J_bl3kVrtAoAcGsCUbgmyPLRgrNRVze13rg7AJ1N2jgvSrCwpN18BjoV_q6ykgCdoHk/s290/digital+yuan.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="174" data-original-width="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeLSJFPHIj0P-Gl1EwByG80NnrlJqdh1acoH4mg-tRPeFcqcnFu8BQvjxn8mu62rG3aFT140d8J_bl3kVrtAoAcGsCUbgmyPLRgrNRVze13rg7AJ1N2jgvSrCwpN18BjoV_q6ykgCdoHk/s0/digital+yuan.jpg" /></a></div><p align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; text-align: center;"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">China’s upcoming launch of its new digital
currency (the digital Yuan) is seen as its latest tool to achieve supremacy on
international commerce. Dissecting the information brings the few key insights:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 18pt;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This is essentially a political issue <o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">First, the digital currency will be
directly managed by the Chinese Central Bank which will help increasing China’s
already strong hold on its privacy control policies via a monitoring of consumers’
spending habits.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Secondly, China and the US are on battle
to economic supremacy. In that way, China welcomes the publicity created around
this announcement, particularly as a possible threat to the US Dollar
dominance; whether factual or not. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 18pt;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This is obviously a tech issue<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This new currency will inevitably bring
about a boost in innovation. While tech companies will be on the front line,
other multinational companies are likely to profit as well if it proves to be a
more convenient settlement form. However, since China does not have a monopoly
of this technology, it will very likely be caught up by others if tangible
additional benefit to the general public can be demonstrated. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Who will be the losers here?<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Analysis so far suggests that in its
efforts to have a stronger hold of its consumers spending, China will very
likely cut the middle man of the current monetary system i.e. the banks. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Whether it is to attempt reducing a
rampant and fairly uncontrollable shadow banking debt burden its home ground or
to move closer to a cashless economy (for sanitary reasons or to reduce the
costs of imports and international payments), this innovation will affect the
banking industry as it is known today. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Banks are already attempting to
weather today’s fintech storm by adapting their technologies and offerings.
While they will certainly fight back and adapt to the innovation, the banking
system as we know it today is irreversibly changing towards a more tech
integrated format with less human interaction. As pointed in a previous post, the
role of advisor might be the only sustainable service for the Banking industry
in the long run. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">What about Africa?<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Africa won’t be foreign to this
trend. The continent has been known to effect giant leaps into innovation sometimes
without following rest of the world’s evolution patterns. This is partly due to
the fact that it’s buoyant and constantly growing market is seen as fertile
ground to test new technologies and their scalability. Therefore, provided
technological or infrastructure tweaks can be operated, Africa is always
presented with an adaptation of new technologies and more often than not it
manages to acclimate fast enough to considerably embrace the innovation. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">So, can the digital Yuan achieve market supremacy?</span></i><i><span lang=""><o:p> </o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Assertively answering that question
is a serious gamble today. Just as no one knew what a smartphone was a decade ago,
no one knows for sure what the future holds in the tech world. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That being said, monetary dominance has more
to do with Economics than it has with technological advancement. Let’s make a parallel
analysis. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The United States: <o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Key elements that makes a currency a
dominant one are: the fact that it belongs to a major commercial hub, which
leads (amongst other) to the currency being used by a larger number of
consumers to settle financial transactions and the fact that it is represents a
safe value against depreciation, which leads to a number of economies adopting
the currency as transactional tool when the local currency fails to fill this
role. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>America has been the world’s most productive
area for the past 130 years. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The U.S. took over as a main
transactional hub of the world in the late 19 century following a century of
British domination created by the invention of the steam engine.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>From 1890, the American east coast and the
Boston took over as a main commercial hub following the set-up of industrialized
explosive engine automotive. Following the 1929 depression, New York was at the
heart of the American (and the world’s) post-depression recovery buoyed by the
invention and expansion of electricity. The 1980’s saw the emergence of the
west coast’s incredible technological innovation wave with the internet, its <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">dot.com</i> boom and the rise of the mighty
Silicon Valley. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">As if the export of its production
over the century was not enough, America has never hesitated to print money to
fund its various monetary needs including its everlasting deficit. This
important quantity of dollars in circulation therefore found its way into the
“pockets” of the many parties who very much needed it to transact with “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">America Inc</i>.”. This includes foreign
governments (one of the most prominent one being China), purchasers of
America’s debt and holding U.S Dollars as a form of “collateral”.<span style="color: red;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Dollar is also vastly used as a
safeguard against local depreciating currencies. The DRC is an example of this.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The DRC economy does not count the
United States amongst its top export trading partners and most of its imports
come from the Euro zone and China. However, it is one of the largest dollarized
market on the continent for many years.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">China needs to work at filling the
above mentioned characteristics for the Yuan to start looking at taking over
form the US Dollars major world currency status. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">China: <o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">China has the potential to be world’s
ext transactional hub. The productivity the Chinese economy has accomplished
over the past two decade has been nothing short of phenomenal. Key elements of
that productivity includes vast Government spending and an immense local fueling
consumption and spending. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">However China still has many
challenges to overcome before it claims the major transactional hub<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> </i>status, that US, the UK or other the
Dutch empire claimed before them. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="">Despite the attractiveness of its internal
market, Government’s involvement in business dealings remains a major drawback
for a number of investments in China. The communist party is actually present
within businesses depending on the size. This clearly hampers private
initiative<a href="file:///C:/Users/dc300834/Desktop/China%20Digital%20currency_then%20what.docx#_edn1" name="_ednref1" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[i]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>.
<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="">Skills remain limited. Because it
has been labelled the manufacturing hub of the world, China appears to have
plenty of skilled workers available. An in-depth look shows major gaps in that
regard. For example, in 2005, 600,000 engineers graduated from Chinese
universities. However, a report from the McKinsey Global Institute estimated
that only one in ten were ready to work at a foreign multinational.<a href="file:///C:/Users/dc300834/Desktop/China%20Digital%20currency_then%20what.docx#_edn2" name="_ednref2" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[ii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
China is currently struggling with a large gap of skilled labor badly needed by
its growing economy. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="">China’s still has a large amount of
underdeveloped rural areas that growth hasn’t reached yet. While those areas
are expected to catch up in the next two decades, its population is fairly
unproductive owing to its skillset and age. China’s longstanding one child policy
made it so that if the limited currently employable population is not rapidly
educated to cater for the country’s current and future needs, they will only be
useful as low skill labor. The gap thus created will take another decade to be
filled. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="">China’s is struggling with innovation.
A lot of what is seen as vibrant development of Chinese based ideas are in fact
existing technologies adapted to Chinese market rules. That catch up exercise requires
so much work that actual innovation is somehow left to the side. Another factor
of the limited innovation has to do with the educational system that is not
designed to encourage creativity. Universities are the cradle of innovative
forces. But institutions can hardly provide a fertile ground for creativity when
directly managed by Government’s restrictive supervision<a href="file:///C:/Users/dc300834/Desktop/China%20Digital%20currency_then%20what.docx#_edn3" name="_ednref3" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[iii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang=""> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="">China has many arguments showing it
is coming up as a major economic force. That being said, the digital Yuan should
hardly be considered a disruptive factor in that regard. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang=""> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="">
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<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/dc300834/Desktop/China%20Digital%20currency_then%20what.docx#_ednref1" name="_edn1" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[i]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> <w:sdt citation="t" id="-1422634225"><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='mso-element:field-begin'></span><span style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span><span lang=EN-US>CITATION Reg14 \l 1036 </span></span><span
style='mso-element:field-separator'></span><![endif]--><span lang="">(Regina M. Abrami, 2014)</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span><![endif]--></w:sdt><span lang=""><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/dc300834/Desktop/China%20Digital%20currency_then%20what.docx#_ednref2" name="_edn2" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[ii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> <w:sdt citation="t" id="2124797405"><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='mso-element:field-begin'></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:
EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>CITATION Che13 \l 1036 </span><span
style='mso-element:field-separator'></span><![endif]--><span lang="">(Chen, Mourshed, & Grant,
2013)</span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span><![endif]--></w:sdt><span lang=""><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><a href="file:///C:/Users/dc300834/Desktop/China%20Digital%20currency_then%20what.docx#_ednref3" name="_edn3" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[iii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> <w:sdt citation="t" id="-2012904759"><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='mso-element:field-begin'></span><span style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span><span lang=EN-US>CITATION Reg14 \l 1036 </span></span><span
style='mso-element:field-separator'></span><![endif]--><span lang="">(Regina M. Abrami, 2014)</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span><![endif]--></w:sdt><span lang=""><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7pt "times new roman";"> </span></span></span></p>Gaëtan Munkeni http://www.blogger.com/profile/18262034487902499731noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4348850822028919569.post-79524914865418556482020-06-02T00:19:00.006+02:002020-08-04T19:16:18.831+02:00Le racisme : Recommencer une histoire de l’homme<div style="text-align: justify;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWBPnYR4fgCRmwxAo9dagsLBKY2VK4Ftp9NMsk0V_ZxhyW_WTEAhVnJIt18QwrEIqFQq_sBOkMK4yAG6DA9P83er7s84j0oSC9zyrK646e7n5kCFII21bi30vyYu75evkqz11BP6pv7w4/s299/Race.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="299" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWBPnYR4fgCRmwxAo9dagsLBKY2VK4Ftp9NMsk0V_ZxhyW_WTEAhVnJIt18QwrEIqFQq_sBOkMK4yAG6DA9P83er7s84j0oSC9zyrK646e7n5kCFII21bi30vyYu75evkqz11BP6pv7w4/s0/Race.jpg" /></a></div><font size="4"><br /></font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">Au vu des derniers évènements survenus aux états unis qui ont engendré la colère de l’opinion, il est intéressant de se questionner fondamentalement sur ce mal qui ronge les communautés humaines. Tenter d’y réfléchir, tenter de se réinventer. </font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4"><br /></font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4"><i>De quoi parle-t-on ?</i></font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">Le racisme est définit soit comme une idéologie postulant une hiérarchie des races ou comme une discrimination ou une hostilité envers un groupe humain<span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif;">[1].</span></font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4"><br /></font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">La première perspective de la définition nous place devant la problématique de la différenciation des races. La race est définie au sens propre du terme comme la catégorie de classement de l'espèce humaine selon des critères morphologiques ou culturels, sans aucune base scientifique<span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif;">[2]</span> .</font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">Le racisme consiste donc à réserver un traitement particulier à un individu dépendamment de la « déclinaison » de sa couleur de peau. </font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">Le racisme est donc question de couleurs. Peindre le mur d’une chambre en rouge, nous disent les décorateurs, octroierait une sensation plus chaleureuse à la pièce alors que le blanc pourrait donner une perspective plus neutre et froide. Pousser la logique du racisme à l’extrême voudrait qu’à l’instar de ce type de choix de couleurs décoratives, la coloration de peau très foncée d’un est-africain génère plus de répulsion que celle plus basanée d’un centre-africain ou celle métissée d’un afro-caribéen. </font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">Cependant même cette distinction est trop complexe pour la simplicité du racisme. Ce comportement est à ce point inintelligent qu’il est incapable de tenir son propre raisonnement de façon constante. Le racisme est de l’ordre du subjectif, du sentiment, de l’héritage. </font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4"><br /></font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4"><i>Protagonistes</i></font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4"><br /></font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">La traite négrière, L’esclavage, La colonisation, Le nazisme, l’apartheid ont été, entre autres, en près de 300 ans d’histoire humaine, des formes visibles et acceptées de racisme. </font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">Cette histoire met en exergues deux protagonistes : un Blanc et un noir. </font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">La posture du blanc est celle de l’oppresseur, du perturbateur, de l’envahisseur du mode de vide de l’autre. </font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">Celle du noir est celle du plaignant, du suppliant d’une forme d’égalité, de justesse et de justice. </font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">Cependant, la posture blanche a généralement évoluée. A l’exception notable des Etats-Unis, cette posture est désormais celle de la gêne, de l’embarras, lourd fardeau né d’un passé aujourd’hui soigneusement rangé derrière le « politiquement correcte » ; une attitude de condamnation de toutes allusions à ces faits historiques à fort impacts sociologiques. Il y a là comme une tentative d’esquive des accusations de la conscience pour ne pas avoir à affronter la réalité de l’offense. </font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">Malgré l’abolition de l’esclavage et autres décolonisations qui semblent être des avancées de sa condition, la cause du noir n’est pas entendue. Sa posture se transforme alors en épisodes de violences et de révoltes revendicatrices. Il y a eu ensuite une phase « d’écroulement du moi »<span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif;">[3]</span> ; un déni de ses propres origines dans le but d’être à tout prix valorisé par autrui. Mais rien n’y fait. Par les mots du rappeur Sean Carter dit Jay-Z : « Nègre clair, Nègre foncé, Nègre collabo, Nègre résistant, Nègre riche, Nègre pauvre, Nègre de maison, Nègre des champs, Toujours Nègre… ».</font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">Les évènements actuels semblent donc être un retour du noir à des formes plus vindicatives de ses doléances amplifiées par les nouvelles technologies de l’information. </font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">Cette continuelle quête d’acceptation de sa condition d’homme pose aujourd’hui la question des moyens à employer pour obtenir ce droit inaliénable à tout point de vue. </font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4"><br /></font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4"><i>Le débat où la force ? </i></font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4"><br /></font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">Le débat est intelligible ; le racisme ne l’est pas. Le débat est subjectif ; le racisme ne l’est pas. </font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">La violence par contre est objective, factuelle, fluide dans sa communication et presque libératrice. On peut donc comprendre pourquoi et comment la violence a été et est encore aujourd’hui pour beaucoup de noirs oppressés la seule alternative pour faire passer un message autour duquel il est difficile et à la limite indécent d’être subjectif. </font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">La posture du blanc oriente les moyens de réponses à la problématique du débat et de la force. L’Europe, contrairement aux Etats-Unis, a réalisé des « progrès » dans ce sens que le racisme (devrait-on s’en contenter ?) y a pris des formes plus « subtiles ». Les Européens, instigateurs d’un nombre important d’oppressions raciales, ont, au fil des années, lissées leurs modes de pensée vers des préceptes tels que le respect des droits de l’homme qui empêchent désormais une forme de brutalité ouverte. Dans ces contrées le « débat » est généralement accepté. </font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">Il n’en reste pas moins que cette forme de racisme, plus sournoise puisque cachée derrière le prêche constant d’une réalité égalitaire inexistante, est toute aussi frustrante (si pas plus) que la forme violente de l’offense. </font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">La violence, elle au moins, offre une forme d’égalité à l’opprimé en ce sens qu’on se lance dans un affront tangible, actif et réel, qui « existe ». Ceci explique pourquoi, à l’instar de la réaction des noirs américains, certains noirs européens réagissent avec violence à ce que l’autre partie considère comme une évolution de la pensée raciale. Cette violence est salvatrice pour le protagoniste noir pour qui le racisme est violence à l’état de nature ne pouvant s’incliner que devant une plus grande forme de violence<span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif;">[4]</span>.</font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">Cette violence trop souvent incomprise et, parce que jugée incompréhensible, est rangée grâce aux préceptes volontairement simplistes du « politiquement correcte » derrière les traits « culturels » de l’homme noir. </font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4"><br /></font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4"><i>Culture : Différences contre Discrimination</i></font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4"><br /></font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">Il existe une forte tentation de classer le racisme derrière le joli tableau d’une vaste incompréhension culturelle. Fourberie ! Il s’agit là d’une tentative d’intellectualisation du racisme qu’Il ne mérite pas. A l’instar de ces manifestations sociales, le racisme n’est pas une machine à penser et n’est pas un corps doué de raison <span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif;">[5].</span> Le racisme est rétrograde, banal et simple. </font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">Ce qui l’est moins, est la difficulté d’acceptation et de respect des différences culturelles, et, dans ce processus, la condamnation des discriminations inhérentes à ces différences. </font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">Ceci nous amène à la deuxième définition du racisme qui fait référence à l’hostilité envers un autre groupe humain. Certaines cultures africaines prônent une différentiation dans l’éducation des jeunes filles qui entraine une série de discrimination envers les femmes qu’elles deviennent. Certaines religions prônent la damnation des homosexuels ce qui engendre également des discriminations envers ces personnes. </font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">Il est donc important de continuer d’avoir ce débat subtil portant sur la définition des barrières entre acceptation des différences (notamment culturelles) et refus des discriminations tout en respectant la liberté de chacun. Ceci est un travail communautaire, inclusif et urgent. Il implique, blancs et noirs, oppresseurs et oppressés. C’est d’humanité dont il est question. </font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">Bien qu’épineux et sensible, un juste milieu est possible. L’être humain en est capable. Son développement cognitif le lui permet. Il l’a prouvé autant de fois que l’histoire a eu besoin de s’en rappeler. </font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">Homo Sapiens est le seul animal sur terre capable de collaborer avec un très grand nombre de ses paires<span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif;">[6]</span> . C’est pour cela qu’il domine le monde.</font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">Le raciste, en démontrant son incapacité à faire évoluer son mode de pensée et son acceptation de l’autre situe donc son développement cognitif, quelque part entre 2,5 millions d’années et 200 000 ans avant notre ère<span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif;">[7]</span> , au moment où toute autre forme de vie différente du genre Homo lui était hostile. </font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">Le racisme est à ce point primaire. </font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4"><br /></font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><font size="4">Gaëtan M.</font></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><span><a name='more'></a></span><div style="line-height: 1; text-align: justify;"><p class="MsoFootnoteText" style="line-height: 1;"><font size="1" style="line-height: 1;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="line-height: 1;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="line-height: 1;"><span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 1;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span><span lang="" style="line-height: 1;"> Larousse (2020)
Race, Available at:
https://www.larousse.fr/dictionnaires/francais/race/65899?q=RACE#65153
(Accessed: 30th may 2020).<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<font size="1" style="line-height: 1;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="line-height: 1;"><span style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 1;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="line-height: 1;"><span style="line-height: 1;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 1;"> Larousse (2020) Racisme, Available at:
https://www.larousse.fr/dictionnaires/francais/racisme/65932?q=racisme#65185
(Accessed: 30th may 2020).</span></font></div><div style="line-height: 1; text-align: justify;"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 1;"><font size="1" style="line-height: 1;"><p class="MsoFootnoteText" style="line-height: 1;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="line-height: 1;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="line-height: 1;"><span style="line-height: 1;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span> Fanon, F (1971) Peau noire, masques blancs, Seuil
edn., : Seuil<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoFootnoteText" style="line-height: 1;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="line-height: 1;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="line-height: 1;"><span style="line-height: 1;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span> Fanon, F (1961) Les damnés de la terre, Anep edn., :
Anep Rouiba<o:p></o:p></p>
<span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="line-height: 1;"><span style="line-height: 1;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="line-height: 1;"><span style="line-height: 1;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span><span style="line-height: 1;"> Fanon, F (1961) Les damnés de la terre, Anep edn., :
Anep Rouiba</span></font></span></div><div style="line-height: 1; text-align: justify;"><span lang="" style="font-family: calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 1;"><span style="line-height: 1;"><font size="1" style="line-height: 1;"><p class="MsoFootnoteText" style="line-height: 1;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="line-height: 1;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="line-height: 1;"><span style="line-height: 1;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span> <span lang="" style="line-height: 1;">Harari, Y.N (2016) Homo Deus, A brief history of
tomorrow, Harvill Secker edn., London: Penguin Random House Group.</span><span lang="" style="line-height: 1;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="line-height: 1;"><span style="line-height: 1;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="line-height: 1;"><span style="line-height: 1;">[7]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span><span style="line-height: 1;"> </span><span lang="" style="line-height: 1;">Harari,
Y.N (2014) Sapiens, A brief History of Human Kind, Harvill Secker edn., London:
Penguin Random House Group.</span></font></span></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div>Gaëtan Munkeni http://www.blogger.com/profile/18262034487902499731noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4348850822028919569.post-47294012307954480092019-06-14T16:41:00.001+02:002020-08-04T19:36:46.758+02:00 Copper Rallies on Chinese Infrastructure Hopes<br />
<br />
<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGtIC3z9IaH6PFqhmhf0d6Oay-LbXsAIF9qnBNU5ORiGXSw4_iZNB5-6cXp0GHKWZyzKR3P-4DNwgYGNV7lsbSa6g7g0UpiXplIVyZvLrWU3zctq4U901BVqpqBeUh1vNbryTeLEuKBOM/s678/copper.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="381" data-original-width="678" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGtIC3z9IaH6PFqhmhf0d6Oay-LbXsAIF9qnBNU5ORiGXSw4_iZNB5-6cXp0GHKWZyzKR3P-4DNwgYGNV7lsbSa6g7g0UpiXplIVyZvLrWU3zctq4U901BVqpqBeUh1vNbryTeLEuKBOM/s640/copper.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75); font-family: "source serif pro", serif; font-size: 20px; text-align: left; white-space: pre-wrap;">With the recent fall of Cobalt prices copper is still able to reasonably keep local liquidity a float. However, signs of droughts are felt owing to various factors including projects end of cycles and reinvestments decisions to be weighted against public scrutiny over regulatory measures. A rebound of copper prices would be a welcoming factor at this point while expecting the revival of the almighty cobalt announced for the second half of the year.</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75); font-family: "source serif pro", serif; font-size: 20px; text-align: left; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/copper-rallies-on-chinese-infrastructure-hopes-11560265158" style="text-align: left;" target="_blank">https://www.wsj.com/articles/copper-rallies-on-chinese-infrastructure-hopes-11560265158</a></div>Gaëtan Munkeni http://www.blogger.com/profile/18262034487902499731noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4348850822028919569.post-29372323195617419792017-09-02T11:49:00.002+01:002020-08-04T19:41:26.817+02:00What will the banking system look like tomorrow ?<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGBignTgY8TxxYgQxZ6v1c97IVLHe_Ne__Xqx0tE6M6d2j6iG3FhUSNMLBGPhaOB-Dydi9AUpMq5pXWiGJprXx6tgbGT8LHobADonVySihreXfhCaJlRvtAx9vbTmkiQdFRGOdMsCXzl4/s373/banking+system.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="135" data-original-width="373" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGBignTgY8TxxYgQxZ6v1c97IVLHe_Ne__Xqx0tE6M6d2j6iG3FhUSNMLBGPhaOB-Dydi9AUpMq5pXWiGJprXx6tgbGT8LHobADonVySihreXfhCaJlRvtAx9vbTmkiQdFRGOdMsCXzl4/d/banking+system.png" /></a></div><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">A series of technological advancement in the
financial world recently got me thinking about the future of the banking system
as we know it today. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The inherent role of banks is centered on
taking deposits, making payments and providing or brokering funding.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Today, their deposit-taking role competes with
money market instruments proving better returns for idle money. As such, the
deposit growth of the top 5 American banks is negatively correlated to FED
rates and the subsequent attractiveness of money markets investment avenues. <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Money markets, together with debt capital
markets, are also and increasingly duplicating the lending role assumed by the
banking system. Lending to large corporates has got increasingly competitive
and unprofitable for banks because of the lower interest rates they command.
Banks are better off brokering deals for debt markets in return for a fee<span style="background: lightgrey; mso-highlight: lightgrey;">.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Banks’ transactional role is not better off. Last
year has seen for the first time, the amount of global digital payments
overtake that of cash payments globally. The evolution of ebanking, mobile
money instruments and crypto currencies tend to sideline the traditional
banking system. Despite the many <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamhartung/2017/08/15/a-bitcoin-is-worth-4000-why-you-probably-should-not-own-one/#4cb334443b08" target="_blank">criticisms </a>towards its underlying value (some
of which I share) the increasing demand for Bitcoins got them valued at over USD
4000. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/20c10d58-8d9c-11e7-a352-e46f43c5825d" target="_blank">Six major banks </a>have recently joint forces to
create crypto currencies intended to fastback stock exchange settlements. If
these are extended to traditional banking operations, the role of central banks
could become questionable. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">These evolutions are likely to limit banks’
role to that of clearinghouses, servers or merely regulators of a self-running system.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">As these roles are just as duplicable by third
party institutions overtime, will they be profitable enough to justify the cost
of running banks?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In my view, the only role banks are almost
surely likely to keep is that of an advisor.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The ability to opine and guide clients throughout various market
conditions or assist in structuring complex transactions for debt or equity
raising is probably the only expertise bankers of tomorrow are going to be
sought for. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
Gaëtan Munkeni http://www.blogger.com/profile/18262034487902499731noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4348850822028919569.post-86845265332348672702017-08-19T09:12:00.001+01:002020-08-04T19:43:15.104+02:00Rail: A competitive advantage for trade<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEif9ug8R5y0awxQBXb11F7WtC1cVt9peUjaq47xleyhsLakLVyNM-hYDnmiOBlClauzFwNAVjpw6zeJn8HyUeDRd00lBgZYLw2HwZ1DqiX7hQJB95-ACI2AZMYlW9wSkJixNEQUTm08Ucw/s700/trade.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="394" data-original-width="700" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEif9ug8R5y0awxQBXb11F7WtC1cVt9peUjaq47xleyhsLakLVyNM-hYDnmiOBlClauzFwNAVjpw6zeJn8HyUeDRd00lBgZYLw2HwZ1DqiX7hQJB95-ACI2AZMYlW9wSkJixNEQUTm08Ucw/s640/trade.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-family: cambria; font-size: 14pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: cambria; font-size: 14pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">A number of African
countries are betting on rail to achieve regional or transnational integration.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: cambria; font-size: 14pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Continent wide, an
increasing amount of regional rail projects are being implemented. In the north:
Ethiopia to Djibouti, West: Niger to Togo and east Africa: plans of linking
Rwanda to Ethiopia. That could contribute to making the continent a giant <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/zdnl-mc/2017/08/14/africa-soon-largest-free-trade-area-world/" target="_blank">free trade area</a>; a giant step for a fully integrated and interconnected Africa. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: cambria; font-size: 14pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">With an existing network
of 5033<span style="color: red;"> </span>kms ideally position between mineral
extraction areas (center, east and south) and two principal sea exit points in
the South: Durban via Zambia and Benguela via Angola, the DRC can find in rail an
interesting competitive advantage for its trade.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: cambria; font-size: 14pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Solely looking at it
from the option of mineral and good transport, this represents a cost effective
and faster option than road (the continent still counts a number of board
posts). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: cambria; font-size: 14pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Locally, the
privatization of those railways, at least partially, might be the only way to
ensure the necessary maintenance and profitability to make it viable. The last
attempt in that direction via a South African-Congolese consortium (Sizarail) seemed
to start bearing fruit until canceled. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: cambria; font-size: 14pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The upside of such a
project is attractive enough to resources companies and major importers for
PPP’s to be structured around them. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: cambria; font-size: 14pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">A success here could expand
the experience to currently untapped routes and possibility open the door to a
better-structured and profitable passenger transport. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
Gaëtan Munkeni http://www.blogger.com/profile/18262034487902499731noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4348850822028919569.post-33762206439394720552015-12-06T13:03:00.001+02:002020-08-06T23:59:24.848+02:00Le paradoxe du cadre de financement actuel des PME Congolaises<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjQOXkPEvBKi1akc0RfkoAUqwiSUOZTdXfesM2rzlgm3PJibN5WcjPPOvCI7ZA5ayUT99jg16FGiFMgbJeBGTn8qzje9NWVWJ9fMFXcppFcv98aUUPza61mhuIydGAKZvkhHxqhFgpQE4/s550/SME.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0px;"><img border="0" data-original-height="310" data-original-width="550" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjQOXkPEvBKi1akc0RfkoAUqwiSUOZTdXfesM2rzlgm3PJibN5WcjPPOvCI7ZA5ayUT99jg16FGiFMgbJeBGTn8qzje9NWVWJ9fMFXcppFcv98aUUPza61mhuIydGAKZvkhHxqhFgpQE4/s0/SME.jpg" /></a></div><span face="" lang="FR" style="color: #323232; font-family: palatino; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="color: #323232; font-family: palatino;">Les banques commerciales financent par excellence des
projets existants. Leur principale structure se situe quelque part entre le
crédit à court terme et à moyen terme se focalisant sur des flux de trésorerie émanant
des entités financées.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span face="" lang="FR" style="color: #323232; font-family: palatino; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino;">Cependant la vaste majorité des opportunités à financer
en RD Congo et en Afrique sont des projets non-existants. Pour résorber les
déficits d’un certain nombres de domaines: l’alimentaire, l’énergétique, l’académique
(pour ne citer que ceux la), de nouveaux projets doivent impérativement voir le
jour au delà de l’expansion du nombre limité de ceux déjà existants.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span face="" lang="FR" style="color: #323232; font-family: palatino; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino;">Il est donc paradoxal que ces PME continuent d’être
essentiellement financées (pour celles qui le sont) par des banques
commerciales pas tout à fait outillées pour faire face au profil financier de
ces entités. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span face="" lang="FR" style="color: #323232; font-family: palatino; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino;">De cet état de fait provient l’éternel jeu de ping-pong
entre « financiers et financés » avec<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>ces perpétuelles accusations contre le caractère <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">capitaliste</i> de la démarche financière des premiers et ignorant
complètement les problématiques de risque présentées par les seconds. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span face="" lang="FR" style="color: #323232; font-family: palatino; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino;">Pourquoi les banques commerciales ne prennent elles pas
plus de risque ?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span face="" lang="FR" style="color: #323232; font-family: palatino; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino;">La réponse à cette question,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>devenue quasiment rhétorique, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>sonne malheureusement comme un disque raillé
dans les oreilles des financiers (locaux, régionaux et internationaux), des financés
et des pouvoirs publics ; au point qu’un désarment status-quo empêche
toujours quelques avancées que ce soit. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span face="" lang="FR" style="color: #323232; font-family: palatino; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino;">En guise de modeste contribution à ce débat, je me suis
allé un recadrage de la perception des forces en présence.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span face="" lang="FR" style="color: #323232; font-family: palatino; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino;">Primo, les PME sont des entités risquées- pour un bon
nombre de raisons dont la plupart ne feront pas l’objet de ce post par souci de
concision <a href="http://le-capital.blogspot.com/2015/01/are-congolese-start-ups-sustainable.html" target="_blank">(voir notamment mon poste sur les startups Congolaises) </a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span face="" lang="FR" style="color: #323232; font-family: palatino; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino;">Secundo, les banques visent d’abord le profit ; et
ensuite que celui-ci soit en adéquation avec le niveau du risque encouru –
cette idée fait souvent l’objet d’un tabou dans le chef même de certains
financiers. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span face="" lang="FR" style="color: #323232; font-family: palatino; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino;">Ce recadrage paraît relativement évident et même un peu
inutile. Mais son importance m’est venue à l’esprit la semaine dernière lors
d’un panel de discussion sur le financement des PME auquel je participais. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span face="" lang="FR" style="color: #323232; font-family: palatino; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino;">Trois faits marquants:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span face="" lang="FR" style="color: #323232; font-family: palatino; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino;">Premièrement un responsable du « monde des
affaires » se prêtant à un virulent exercice de critique aux institutions financières
a présenté le risque d’échec des startups et le défaut de paiement des PME
comme des « accidents » de leur parcours que les banques devraient
considérer comme tels. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span face="" lang="FR" style="color: #323232; font-family: palatino; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino;">Le fait que cette intervention ait été très applaudie
laisse paraître la profonde incompréhension du rôle de chaque partie. L’accident
revêt généralement un caractère aléatoire et fortuit. Cependant le manque de
préparation et de structure de nos PME, dès leur genèse, ne rend pas leur échec
aléatoire ou fortuit mais quasiment prémédité !<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span face="" lang="FR" style="color: #323232; font-family: palatino; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino;">Sans une compréhension fondamentale du caractère risqué
de leurs structures, ces entrepreneurs ne prendront jamais des mesures visant à
rassurer les financiers. Un doigt pointé vers les organisations du monde des affaires
pour un encadrement inadéquat de ces entités. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span face="" lang="FR" style="color: #323232; font-family: palatino; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino;">Le second fait est l’idée selon laquelle le constat du
manque d’émergence des startups/PME ne serait pas alarmant car les africains
(Congolais inclus) sont des « entrepreneurs nés » du fait que la
majorité d’entre eux ne se contentent pas de leurs simples salaires pour vivre.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span face="" lang="FR" style="color: #323232; font-family: palatino; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino;">Bien qu’il y ait une part de vérité dans cette
conception, l’entreprenariat local est essentiellement un entreprenariat de
subsistance. L’émergence de ce type d’« entreprises » n’a
malheureusement fait que gonfler les statistiques du secteur informel depuis
des décennies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Un doigt pointé vers les
pouvoirs publics pour des efforts insuffisants à faciliter la formalisation de
l’entreprenariat. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span face="" lang="FR" style="color: #323232; font-family: palatino; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino;">Le troisième fait émane d’un manque d’esprit
d’innovation des projets des nouvelles entreprises. Ceci est essentiellement du
aux deux premiers cas. La faible information sur les risques encourus et la subsistance
comme motivation principale fait que l’on se lance généralement vers les
« secteurs qui marchent », sans concepts de différentiations de la concurrence
et sans analyse des besoins réels de l’économie locale. Ici, le doigt est
pointé principalement vers un déficit académique criant.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span face="" lang="FR" style="color: #323232; font-family: palatino; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino;">Mon intervention à ce panel portait sur l’émergence de
financiers spécialisés (business angels, capital risque et capital
investissement) permettant d’étendre la palette des sources de financement actuelles
vers des prises de participations en capitaux. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span face="" lang="FR" style="color: #323232; font-family: palatino; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino;">Cependant, un travail fondamental semble être préalable
à un quelconque intérêt de ces entités financières. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
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Gaëtan Munkeni http://www.blogger.com/profile/18262034487902499731noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4348850822028919569.post-15666311742932033602015-03-29T11:04:00.002+02:002015-03-29T11:06:43.396+02:00Financement local de la croissance Congolaise<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
Le mois dernier, le
Gouvernement Congolais a publié les récents chiffres de sa croissance annuelle.
Celle-ci fait état d’une progression de l’ordre de 9,5%.</div>
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<span lang="FR">La part des financements
locaux comme catalyseur de cette croissance fait encore débat. <span style="color: red;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="FR">L’on peut analyser la question
en se basant sur deux secteurs majeurs qui, d’après la banque centrale du
Congo, sont les fers de lance de cette croissance : l’industrie minière et
celle des services avec, notamment, le secteur des télécommunications. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="FR">Au delà du fait que le lien de
cause à effet entre secteur primaire et croissance économique reste <a href="http://le-capital.blogspot.com/2015/01/fdis-and-economic-growth-through-lenses.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: red;">discutable</span>,</a> les banques Congolaises n’interviennent
que très peu dans le financement d’expansions d’opérations minières productrices
de richesses car bien trop limitées par leurs tailles de bilan. Les fonds nécessaires à ces types d’investissements sont
presque toujours levés à l’étranger. De plus, il se pose bien souvent le
problème de l’expertise nécessaire permettant de mitiger les risques liés à
cette industrie spécialisée.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="FR">Le secteur des
télécommunications, pour sa part, intègre
un peu plus les banques locales mais, une fois de plus, principalement pour ces
besoins de fonctionnement; les banques locales ne prenant que très peu (pour ne pas dire pas du tout) part
aux projets d’investissements. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="FR">En intervenant essentiellement
sur des échéances de court terme, le secteur bancaire local se retrouve donc plus
bénéficiaire que générateur de cette croissance.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="FR">Le rôle du financement des banques Congolaises
n’est cependant pas totalement insignifiant. Entre 2007 et 2013, le pourcentage
des crédits octroyés sur tout le secteur par rapport au PIB à doublé pour
atteindre 5% du PIB toute comme la capacité à collecter l’épargne indiquée par le
taux des dépôts bancaires par rapport au PIB à 9%. Le triplement du PIB sur la
période met cependant un bémol à cette performance.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="FR">Au vu du type de financement que les banques
locales octroient, on pourrait s’attendre à ce que les banques soit un meilleure
relai de la croissance nominale à l’économie réelle. Ceci tarde encore ; principalement
en raison d’un taux de bancarisation encore très faible en RDC (environ 5%
contre une moyenne de 10% à 15% en Afrique sub-saharienne).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="FR">Cependant, cet élément reste un
indicateur clair de la marge de croissance de cette économie et de son secteur
bancaire. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="FR">La priorité actuellement
serait donc de poursuivre la croissance du taux de bancarisation augmentant
ainsi la capacité à collecter l’épargne. Les bilans des banques atteindraient
ainsi des tailles adéquates et celles-ci
se trouveraient donc pourvues du type de liquidité nécessaire pour
progressivement financer de plus larges palettes de besoins générateurs de
richesse. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="FR">Cependant, les risques encours
par les instituions bancaires et la gestion de ceux-ci dans nos pays est
malheureusement une réalité à ne pas ignorer. D’après l’Association Congolaise
des Banque, le cout d’exploitation d’une banque en RD Congo est un des plus
élevé en Afrique. En outre, le système légal ne permet pas toujours une
couverture adéquate des risques encourus. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="FR">Ceci fait l’objet d’un tout autre
débat…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Gaëtan Munkeni http://www.blogger.com/profile/18262034487902499731noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4348850822028919569.post-9603961340459347882015-02-15T21:50:00.001+02:002015-02-15T22:41:57.703+02:00Would i lend a penny to the DR Congo?<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />The beginning of this year has seen a number of African countries planning to raise financing from the sovereign debt market.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Ivory Coast, Rwanda and Angola have planned debt raising in February this year.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">I took the opportunity to look at Congo’s attractiveness to these very inventors.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Ivory coast’s economy has many similarities with DR Congo’s: Similar GDP sizes averaging USD 31 Bn, growth rates at 8%, inflation rates around than 3%, budget deficit at 2 to 3% and, interestingly enough, similar sovereign ratings with S&P’s B- for Congo and B for Ivory Coast.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">So why has the later been able to oversell two sovereign bonds in less than a year while DRC fails to appeal even to the most yield starved investors? </span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Would i lend a penny to DRC ?</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/13/ratings-democraticrepublicofcongo-sp-idUSEMN25Q3HC20131213"><span style="color: blue;">S&P</span></a> gave us gross indications citing weak institutions, continuing conflict, poor governance, extremely low-income levels (70% of the population lives under poverty line</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">), <span style="background: white;">heavy dependence on external financing and very limited economic policy flexibility.</span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">I would personally add the needs of more diversified growth prospects while dropping the heavy external debt elements (Mauritius and, again, Ivory Coast are healthier more indebted economies).</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Despite these instructive elements my view is that, like every lending decision, intangible and immaterial factors greatly impact final sanctions.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The fact that the positive signals (on growth, low inflation and mining output) sent out there have actually little to do with thorough and through out, sequential economic and financial actions is a rather disturbing impression to me.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">There this overall feeling that the country is growing despite of it self and that it is merely an happy and convenient spectator of the show put on by foreign multinationals. This is probably an element setting Congo apart from its concurrent of the day.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">In question, amongst other, is the ability to plan with weak forecasting abilities hampered by a clear lack of reliable data as economic coverage remains poor -some parts of the country do not have a formal central bank presence.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">This subsequently impacts the abilities to organize and the lead executions and finally to control and monitor outcomes.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">So No, I would probably not lend a penny to DR Congo in its current setting. While cognizant of the country’s tremendous growth potential, it remains purely theoretic. Little to nothing is done on the implementation front to insure value to investors.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The country will have to get its act together as most of its smaller neighbors (<a href="http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2013-04-29/what-rwanda-s-bond-sale-says-about-today-s-markets"><span style="color: blue;">Rwanda </span></a>is a very compelling case) are doing a much better job in actually owning their growth, a capacity Congo remains far from today.</span></div>
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Gaëtan Munkeni http://www.blogger.com/profile/18262034487902499731noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4348850822028919569.post-87977086577055885832015-01-25T01:05:00.002+02:002015-01-26T12:32:39.549+02:00Are Congolese start-ups a sustainable feed for a local Venture Capital industry?<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Financing
possibilities of the DRC economy are scarce.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span> Similarly
to the entire Sub-Saharan Africa, DRC is a market mainly attractive to bankers
for transactional purposes likely to be sustained by the large amount of
prospective clients.</span><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">In
view of local bank’s timid funding strategies, looking at the country for the
potential it holds to host attractive venture opportunities is seldom the rule.</span><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">This
is especially true for start up companies which most scholars believe remain a
significant component of the solution to the region’s development issues;
despite their high-risk nature.</span><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">I
therefore borrowed key note speaker star Josh Linkner’s model for<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://joshlinkner.com/images/2012/02/Disciplined-Dreaming-Manifesto.pdf"><span style="color: #4d469c;">disciplined dreaming</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>and asked myself his three key
questions concerning the subject matter: Why? What if? Why not?</span><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<u><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Why?</span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
reason why start ups firm fail to develop in the Congolese context is often
attributed to a vicious circle citing lack of financing as the main reason.</span><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">But
do we have what it takes to sustain a viable venture capital industry locally?</span><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">I
have explored three main factors that I judge essential in developing any business:</span><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">-</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><i><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Creativity</span></i><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">We
clearly have it. The country is home to tremendous raw creative talent from
arts to engineering or commerce roaring to be exploited.</span><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
issue however at this point is the raw status of this talent. <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Those attributes often remain as they are: RAW. Opportunities to polish skills or develop capacities are
scarce. <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>That alone can
hardly make a business sustainable.</span><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">-</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><i><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Management</span></i><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">A
management thought process is clearly lacking here. What that means is a
capacity to bring a project’s idea to life and to continuous productivity. This
thought process includes project development, funding and marketing strategies.</span><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
limited projects that see the light are mostly discovered by more management
able minds mainly by spotting the remarkable talent of their promoters.</span><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.0pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">-</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><i><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Attractive environment</span></i><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> How
attractive is an environment host to 70 million souls? That’s probably the
question many Multinationals present in the country provided a positive answer
to.</span><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
question that should follow should be : to what extend this creativity is able
to create a need of the product promoted.</span><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Telecom
companies have clearly managed to answer that one.</span><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<u><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Why
not?</span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">There’s
a reason why any and every one of those elements is constrained in the Congolese
context.</span><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Creativity
is either shuttered or discouraged by an environment where the most basic
facilities too often lack.</span><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">A
permanent Internet connection remains a treat while the country cries for
decent libraries or bookstores that would, in any case, remain hardly accessible
for the vast majority.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span> Needless
to mention the limited level of business and finance related TV and radio
broadcasts and the lack of up to date, environment and context linked business teachings in either universities or business schools (to the extend the later really exist).</span><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
result is a vast majority of start-ups remaining in that “just another”
category; nothing really sets them apart, little to no revolutionary, life changing idea in an environment where everything is to be built.</span><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<u><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">What
if?</span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Can
a single venture capitalist change all of that? Certainly not.</span><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
rare financiers present locally run away from start-ups focusing on banking
like types of financing (mainly short term working capital in nature).</span><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">But….
What if venture capitalist could look harder?</span><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">What
if they could attempt creating the next breed of entrepreneurs by sourcing
creative talents while focusing their participation on jointly molding projects
and ensuring profitability within the limits of local constraints?</span><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Ugandan
billionaire Ashish Takkar’s Atlas Capital is somehow heading towards that
direction. Its<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://atlasmara.com/"><span style="color: #4d469c;">Atlas Mara</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>investment holding in partnership with
former Barclays CEO<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9b0784b4-758c-11e4-b082-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3PltB5uyC"><span style="color: #4d469c;">Bob Diamond</span></a> raised capital through their
London IPO to: “provide Africans with access to capital through new models.”</span><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">While
hoping it will be possible to hold them to their promises, I believe that the
ability to attract foreign financial investors convinced of a positive balance
between creative potential and local shortages will go a long way into bridging
the current financing gap for DRC based start ups.</span><span lang="FR" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Gaëtan Munkeni http://www.blogger.com/profile/18262034487902499731noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4348850822028919569.post-35878073534825890782015-01-16T13:01:00.002+02:002015-01-25T01:25:31.867+02:00Copper fell out of bed!<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Copper suddenly fell out of bed yesterday
morning!</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The red metal dropped to its lowest in 5
or 6 years. As <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-14/copper-drops-below-5-500-a-ton-as-world-bank-cuts-forecasts.html" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a> reports current 3
months copper at about USD 5500 a ton, i took a look at the impact of a
stumbling copper in DRC financial ecosystem.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<u><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">What happened?</span></u><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">While every analyst goes about its
interpretation, the general view collected here and there points out two
culprits: Energy prices and…you’ve guessed it: China.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Firstly, copper prices have been stumbling
for the past couple of months but some analysts believe the drastic lows of
this past week or so followed energy prices (mainly oil) as industrials fear a
more global commodities crisis.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Secondly the World Bank recently
reduced its world economic growth outlook led by worse-than-expected economic
data from China thus creating fear of demand weaknesses for the red metal.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">And DRC in all of that?</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<u><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Oil price impact</span></u><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">At first sight, the fall in energy prices
appears to be rather good for copper dependent DR Congo as it drives operating
cost down; that is provided local authorities actually action their lengthy
price revision process. </span><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Key targets are transport costs since
copper is mainly sent out by road to southern and eastern Africa major ports,
and own fuel consumption as the country’s power shortages lead to massive use
of fuel for generators. This is in line with the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/15/us-imf-lagarde-idUSKBN0KO1Z620150115" target="_blank">IMF’s</a> view that the current
energy nosedive will bolster economic activity.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">How that assertion will play out is a
factor of two key elements: demand should hardly be affected and mining
companies will have to reorganize parts of their costs structures.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The key impact in DRC will obviously be
felt in Copper rich Katanga whose mining industry I personally like to divide
in Top, Middle and Small income or junior companies.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I usually put my thresholds north of
40.000 tons a year for top producers, then follow a narrow 10.000 to 40.000
tons a year threshold for middle players. Below that are junior companies still
settling their technological and production know-how and/or looking for
substantial partnerships (off-take or capital) to ramp up.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<u><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Cost management is key</span></u><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Now the impact all depends on where you
situate yourself. Top players usually have their fixed costs squared down at
about USD 2000/2500 per ton LME. This goes up to USD 4000/4500 for the middle
level companies and anything higher than that for the smaller boys.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Furthermore, most of the top and middle
players manage to hedge their future supply for a minimum of 3 months, thus
making them relatively secured against sudden shock waves.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">With an operational cost providing a little
more than USD 1000 per ton in buffer, minimum, at current copper prices and an
hedged production providing assurances of positive flows for the next quarter
or so, most major copper producers in DRC still have breathing room to hope for
a potential commodity price recovery. There's therefore little to worry about
at this point, unless on has bet on a junior miner, some of whom might have
started suffering this very moment. </span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;"><u2:p></u2:p><u2:p></u2:p><u2:p></u2:p><u2:p></u2:p><u2:p></u2:p><u2:p></u2:p><u2:p></u2:p><u2:p></u2:p><u2:p></u2:p><u2:p></u2:p>However,
since only after sight is perfect science, let's see what the next couple of
weeks have in store for copper as no one could have precisely guessed, a couple
of months ago, that copper would have suddenly fallen out of bed!</span><!--EndFragment-->
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<!--EndFragment-->Gaëtan Munkeni http://www.blogger.com/profile/18262034487902499731noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4348850822028919569.post-36901470234299177892015-01-11T13:19:00.000+02:002015-01-16T22:38:26.132+02:00Congo, FDI's and Economic Growth <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;">Discussions concerning impact of Foreign Direct investments (FDI’s) in economic growth have been subject to lots of debate.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US">Scholars, academics and policy makers have been voicing their opinion some arguing it does not matter while others arguing in favor of its role in creating economic growth although in selected sectors of the economy.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://archive.unu.edu/hq/library/Collection/PDF_files/WIDER/WRP/WRP084.pdf" target="_blank">Others </a>again establish a chicken an egg like debate on whether FDI leads to economic growth or the contrary.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;">Looking at it through the lenses of DR Congo, the inevitable view is that it mattered. Perhaps this appears so obviously because the flows of FDI’s from the late 90’s followed a relatedly lengthy period without any sizable investment.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;">Whichever way we look at it, what i would like to call the « first round » of FDI’s was made of a mixed of investments between the primary sector, unveiling some mineral resources untouched for years (mainly mining), and the service industry, creating needs with enhanced technology mainly through telecom and Banking.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;">An instant forward leap was felt on the job market, with these firms brining on board top local university performers whose revenues further enhance the service industry that progressively pushed its level of sophistication while remaining basic as compared with equal or smaller neighboring GDP’s. (Rwanda or Uganda).</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;">A closer look at this apparent development leaves one skeptical about the real impact of this close to double digit growth the country has been striking for the past 5 or so years. This growth seems to have a hard time expanding to the majority of the population passed a certain social « level » going down to the lower end of the economic tissue.</span><br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;">My take on this is that the growth pattern sort of went from sector one: primary (mineral resources) to sector three: Services (banks, telecoms or restaurants) while jumping sector two: industries; perhaps the most important in view of its multiplying effect to the rest of the economy.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.grips.ac.jp/teacher/oono/hp/docu01/paper14.pdf" target="_blank">Scholars </a>argue that primary sector investments in mining and oil for example tend to have a limited value chain effect spending to other economic sectors.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;">This is verified in the Congo whose mining industry ecosystem is just as imported as the mining companies themselves. These are skill-based services whose transfer of competences takes time to permanently settle.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;">Despite a non-negligible impact on the labor market, although not enough to create a solid based of local executives- quinary sector, the essential of the externalities brought about by the primary sector are imported.</span><br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;">Another proof of the exactitude of this analysis is the relatively limited level tertiary sector investments (services) in the mining province of Katanga vs. a market like Kinshasa who is rather « independent » from the primary sector. The mining area, despite generating quite a sizable amount of the country’s GDP, remains a basic tertiary market with little to no investment in services.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;">In addition to the limited local externalities to other economic sectors, primary FDI’s in DRC remain limited in size and in sustainability.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;">Since the mining sector liberalization and the sector’s cleaned up to make it attractive- between the end of the 90’s to the early 2000-, a good 14 years or so have elapsed.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;">Within that time frame only a handful of mining companies managed to inject industry like, sustainable capital investments locally.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;">Industrialization, on the other hand, has a wider base of value chain sourcing inputs from many more sectors of the economy thus allowing a broader externalization effect touching different skill set and levels and resulting in a greater impact for locals.</span><br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;">A big question mark shutters the debate at this point. Does the country have what it takes?</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;">Lack of viable power generation, weak educational structures, inexistent road infrastructure linking the country’s key areas, struggling railway network, not to mention the type of relative political stability and the sense of institutional continuity that enables reducing investments costs for such industrial projects.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;">What is certain however is that primary sector FDI’s alone or investments in reducing poverty through social actions will yield very little result without sustainable secondary sector investments.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;">The service sector is also likely to remain at a relatively limited level of sophistication if this status quo prevails.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Gaëtan Munkeni http://www.blogger.com/profile/18262034487902499731noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4348850822028919569.post-52071581243556939382012-01-02T23:46:00.000+02:002015-01-16T22:46:22.062+02:00Can the Euro be saved ?<div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">I came across an interesting <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/16/magazine/16Europe-t.html" target="_blank">article</a> signed by Paul Krugman (Nobel price of Economics, Princeton Professor and NY Times columnist) drawing a detailed picture of the Euro crisis.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Key take out is that the Euro zone who recently showed alarming sings of weaknesses will have a hard time, if ever, operate and perform as its American counterpart, the "Dollar Zone" (The United States of America) as it lacks essential elements of a normally functioning monetary union: Federal authorities able to support performance of weaker links, an integrated fiscal system as well as cultural binds- strong reference to language.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">A parallel is drawn between two members of both "Economic Zones": The state of Nevada in the US and Ireland in EU to show how the notion of being part of a Nation makes one member better off in similar crisis scenarios A second one is drawn between the management of the current euro crisis and Argentina's confidence crisis (Early year 2000) that resulted in a devaluation of the then pegged pesos against the USD.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">More interesting comparisons and examples are featured in the article.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">However, the article is looked at, it is pretty clear that Krugman either predicts a dead end to the EU Zone or decades of austerity for little economic rewards; as he mentions quoting <span style="background: white;">Barry Eichengreen of Berkeley: <i>"Any euro-zone country that even hinted at leaving the currency would trigger a devastating run on its banks, as depositors rushed to move their funds to safer locales"</i></span> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">I am personally of the idea that the Euro was mainly a longtime wish; an idealistic aspiration carried by Schuman and the other founding fathers over the years and passed over to decades of political leaders adamant to make their "mentors" dreams come true.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Lots of the Economic implications were, voluntarily or not- is another debate-, put aside for the benefit of a will becoming increasingly general to make a longstanding project finally come to live.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">European leaders can, in my views, should either look a ways to increase country’s integration, participation into the project or look at ways to cautiously release the binds of a project that many believe was doomed to fail before it had even started…</span></div>
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Gaëtan Munkeni http://www.blogger.com/profile/18262034487902499731noreply@blogger.com0